Once upon a time, the money cannon meant something. In the Citizens United era, outside groups have carpetbagged around the country, flooding their preferred candidates with millions of dollars and blanketing the airwaves with ads, often enough ensuring victory.
But in the bloody battle between two Democrats vying for a Senate seat in Michigan, big-dollar politics met defeat. Outside groups spent more than $63 million supporting Haley Stevens, a candidate backed by the establishment, dwarfing the amount spent on her opponent, a brash progressive named Abdul El-Sayed with a war chest some nine times smaller.
In this primary, outside spending became a campaign issue. El-Sayed, a former public health official and a Rhodes Scholar, told voters he would take on big money in politics and regularly singled out the involvement of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The advocacy group’s main super PAC spent a record $31.7 million to help elect Stevens, who calls herself a “proud pro-Israel Democrat,” and defeat El-Sayed, who counts among Israel’s most vocal critics and calls the war in Gaza a genocide. It was the most expensive Democratic primary ever.
This progressive victory in a purple state, as narrow as it was, proved that major spending doesn’t ensure victory. But it also raises the question of how toxic AIPAC has become among Democratic primary voters. On election day, if you flipped on cable news, you were greeted by a steady stream of voters telling campaign reporters that AIPAC was the reason they were supporting El-Sayed.
“One could argue that AIPAC’s $32 million didn’t just fail to help Stevens,” said Pod Save America host and former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau, “but served as the most effective line of attack for her opponent.”
The group, which has grown increasingly active in primary campaigns over the years, embodies two issues that have motivated Democratic primary voters: a growing distaste for money in politics and a turn against Israel. El-Sayed hammered both of those themes, rarely missing an opportunity to connect them. At his rallies, the faithful often recited a pecuniary incantation: “Money out of politics! Money in your pockets!”
AIPAC was first launched in the 1950s as a bipartisan lobbying organization seeking stronger ties between the United States and Israel. It organized trips for American politicians to visit Israel and endorsed candidates who supported the country. It didn’t offer direct financial support for candidates until 2021, when it launched a super PAC that backed candidates supportive of Israel and targeted its critics, particularly in Democratic primaries. As Americans have soured on the Israeli government, much of that anger has been directed at AIPAC.
“AIPAC’s numbers have dropped like a rock among Democrats in just the last two years,” CNN data analyst Harry Enten told Vanity Fair. “The percentage of Democrats who say AIPAC backing a candidate makes them less likely to vote for them has gone from just about a third a few years ago to more than half now.” Israel, Enten added, is “a four-letter word in Democratic primaries right now.” Approval for the country among Americans, he pointed out, “has dropped 50+ points from where it once was (depending on when you compare the current moment to).”