‘Michael’ Opening to Near $100M U.S, $206M+ WW

SATURDAY AM: Well, it’s clear, if you want to make the box office a better place, release a Michael Jackson biopic, and make a change. Lionsgate‘s Michael twirled up a $39.5M Friday U.S. in what’s shaping up to be a $95M opening in North America, maybe even an epic $100M (which would be the second highest bow of the year behind Super Mario Galaxy Movie‘s $131M). Overseas Universal is reporting from 82 territories $111.4M (excluding Korea and Japan), add it all up and we’re at $206.4M WW, which is the best opening YTD for a live-action MPA movie ahead of Project Hail Mary ($140.9M).

That first day/previews for Michael stateside as well as its opening weekend are the best Lionsgate has seen since 2015’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 ($45.5M), and far and away the best post Covid opening day and weekend the Santa Monica, CA studio has seen. Michael has easily won the dance-off between musical biopic openings, well ahead of Straight Outta Compton ($60.2M). Also, it’s the biggest opening ever for director Antoine Fuqua, far ahead of Equalizer 2 ($36M). It’s also the biggest opening for producer Graham King ahead of both World War Z ($66.4M) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($51M), as well as screenwriter John Logan, besting the 007 title Skyfall ($88.3M).

RELATED: ‘Michael’ Rocking The World Away With $44M+ Worldwide Running Cume As Foreign Rises To $31M+ – Box Office Update

Big cheers here for Lionsgate Motion Picture Group chair Adam Fogelson, who got this tentpole across the finish line amid the legal snafus with the estate and the dramatized accuser, as well as the third act reshoots. Quite the needle to thread with the sweat paying off with a blockbuster here and the potential for a second film. History has shown that those movies that have the most challenging behind-the-scenes (i.e. The Godfather, Chinatown, Titanic) turn out to be the titles which are for the ages. Though Michael first arrived at the studio during the Joe Drake administration (many studios had passed as they feared the controversy of a Jackson biopic), Lionsgate had the guts to greenlight. It was a scenario similar to Hunger Games, which Lionsgate had the cajones to make as rivals were concerned about an IP in which kids fiercely battled with one another). Guts are clearly paying off, Lionsgate, and it’s a testament to the culture that the studio’s leadership has created.

“This record-breaking performance is a testament to the incredible filmmaking team of producer Graham King and director Antoine Fuqua, an amazing cast led by Jaafar Jackson’s singular performance, our world-class partners at Universal, the cooperation and support of the Michael Jackson Estate, and our tireless and exceptionally talented Lionsgate team,” beamed Fogelson in a statement this AM.  “Above all, it reflects the tremendous outpouring of love and affection from moviegoers around the world, underscoring the strength and vitality of the theatrical box office. If you give audiences what they want, they will come.”

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So far overseas, Michael is No. 1 in 64 territories, setting all-time opening weekend records for a musical biopic in 63 of those. Top performing countries are UK ($13.8M by Sunday); France (estimated cume of $10.3M by Sunday); Mexico ($9.3M by Sunday); Italy (estimated $8.1M by Sunday); and Germany ($6.9M by Sunday). The pic rolls out in the hot Jackson territory of Japan via Kino and Lionsgate in June.

CinemaScore after Friday night polling for Michael remains A-, but on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak, definite recommend has risen to 84% and a 90% positive. Wow. Kids under 12 graded the movie 88% positive and a 62% must-see-right-away.

Imax and premium large format screens are driving a massive 48% of U.S. weekend ticket sales (16% from Imax alone, 32% from PLFs). Michael is dancing the night away everywhere across the country, but he’s strong in the East, South and South Central. The Regal Atlantic Station in Atlanta, GA is the movie’s top grossing location so far with $130K.

Black moviegoers are still leading at 38%, followed by Latino/Hispanic at 26%, Caucasian 24% and Asian at 6%. Still a very female leaning movie at 61%. Broken down demos are women over 25 at 41% (92% positive); men over 25 at 24% (89% positive), women under 25 at 20% (93% positive) and men under 25 at 15% (84% positive).

The weekend for all movies is coming in at $149.7M, which is up +2% over the same frame a year ago (Sinners was leading in weekend 2 with $45.7M, followed by the 20th Anniversary of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith with $25.4M and the opening of The Accountant 2 at $24.5M).

The entire U.S./Canada box office is clicking past $2.6 billion, +17% over the Jan. 1-April 26 period a year ago.

Domestic chart as of Saturday AM:

Hearing soft numbers on A24’s expansion of David Lowery’s music drama Mother Mary starring Anne Hathaway in addition to Fuze. Directed by David Mackenzie, Fuze comes from the director of Hell or High Water and centers around an unexploded WWII bomb which is discovered on a busy construction site in the centre of London. Chaos ensues as the military and police begin a mass evacuation against a ticking clock. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Theo James, Sam Worthington and Gugu Mbatha-Raw star. The pic is 77% certified fresh with critics. Critics are 68% fresh on Mother Mary which follows a pop star (Hathaway) reuniting with her best friend and former costume designer (Michaela Coel), which opens up a lot of wounds.

More…

FRIDAY MIDDAY: The first numbers for Lionsgate’s Michael are in and it’s shaping up to be a $35M-$40M Friday, which includes those $12.6M previews. The Friday through Sunday range is $85M-$95M, and there’s a path to higher, it just boils down whether this is fan-frontloaded.

“Something special is happening, people are dancing in the theaters,” says one source close to the film.

Easily that start is the best for Lionsgate post Covid besting John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73.8M), and of course that completes the record opening for a musical biopic previously held by Universal’s Straight Outta Compton ($60.2M).

Looking back at 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody, also produced by Michael producer Graham King (who clearly knows how to dramatize and navigate complex performers’ stories for the big screen, working feasibly with their estates), that pic posted a Friday/previews figure of $18.8M and then stayed even in its Saturday with $18.8M for a $51M North American debut.

Social media analytics firm RelishMix measured 417.9M Michael followers across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram, which is very strong and 2.2X above music bio-pic genre norms and such musical biopics (pre-opening) as Elvis (278.6M), Bohemian Rhapsody (242.1M), Rocketman (113.5M) but also biopics like House of Gucci (407M). Jaafar Jackson’s growing social network is activated — and has built to 500K fans — plus Nia Long at 10M, Laura Harrier at 1.5M, Coleman Domingo at 1.5M and Juliano Krue Valdi at 1.4M.

Reports RelishMix, “Convo runs positive for Michael, with fans treating trailers like a time machine and the casting as emotional insurance; ‘I literally just got shivers and goosebumps.’ Legacy worship is loud and specific, framing MJ as untouchable cultural capital; “No matter what anyone says about him… he changed the world’ and ‘Long live the KING of Music and Entertainment.’ Craft nerds clock the mimicry, voice, and movement like a performance audit; ‘The attention to detail in his movements is incredible’ and ‘That voice is spot on. I’m impressed.’ The family angle reads as authenticity and brand safety at once; ‘Feels really fitting they have his nephew playing MJ’ and ‘He’s a clone of Michael.’ Biopic comps show up as upside signals and expectations management; ‘I loved Bohemian Rhapsody‘ and ‘as amazing as the American Dream movie.’”

Overall, a strong weekend with spring’s holdovers maintaining wind in their sales despite Michael‘s moonwalking at the B.O.

2. Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Uni) 3,732 theaters Fri $4.6M 3-day $20.5M (-44%), Total $385.7M/Wk 4

3. Project Hail Mary (Amz) 3,510 theaters, Fri $3M 3-day $12M (-41%), Total $304.2M/Wk 6

4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy (NL/WB) 3,304 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.1M (-62%), Total $22.9M/Wk 2

5. The Drama (A24) 1,989 theaters, Fri $800K 3-day $2.6M (-45%), Total $44.6M/Wk 4

FRIDAY AM, AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Thriller Nights: ‘Michael’ Dancing To $12.6M In Previews, CinemaScore Currently ‘A-’ The previews for Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic Michael from Antoine Fuqua came in at $12.6 million. Of that amount, $3.8M came from the fan Imax/PLF screenings Wednesday night.

Early PostTrak from Screen Engine and Comscore on Thursday night shows 5 stars, 88% positive and a massive 81% definite recommend, which Lionsgate can take to the ban; that’s the big stat that indicates legs. Families repped 36% on Thursday, couples (married and non-married) repped 31%, with diversity demos showing Black moviegoers leading at 36%, Latino/Hispanic and Caucasian tied at 25% apiece and 8% Asian American. It’s female-leaning at 56% and a young crowd: 58% were under 35, with the 18-34 bunch at 55%. Fifty percent said they came because they’re MJ fans (subject matter/plot).

Rotten Tomatoes audience score is still strong at 96%, but CinemaScore polled the preview audience on Wednesday and Michael received an A-. That’s the same as musical biopics Elvis and Rocketman but a half-grade under Graham King’s Bohemian Rhapsody, Straight Outta Compton and Bob Marley: One Love which all nabbed an A. CinemaScore usually polls the Friday night opening crowd and posts the results from that tonight. The cinema pollster apparently is doing another update for this pic.

We’ll have more updates for you later. Michael is booked at 3,955 domestic locations, including 1,700 Imax and premium large-format auditoriums.

The rest of the week went down like this: