Fire and Ash’ Eyes $85M-$90 Million Start

SATURDAY AM: There is a path to a $90M+ opening for 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash, but it boils down to how strong today and tomorrow plays. The range is between $85M-$90M after a $36.5M Friday. If the James Cameron threequel plays Star Wars: Force Awakens in percentile trajectory Saturday vs. Friday (without previews), then the threequel will yield a $27M Saturday for an $85M take. If it plays like Avatar: The Way of Water, and does $30M today, then this Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Stephen Lang, Kate Winslet, Oona Chaplin combo is north of $90M.

Fire and Ash gets the Avatar franchise its third straight A CinemaScore. Clearly a divide here between critics (67% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, lowest for the franchise) and moviegoers for the latest movie in which the Na’vi come to blows with the vicious Mangkwan clan, aka Ash People, led by tsahik Varang (Chaplin).

Updated PostTrak exits show a tie between 18-24, and 25-34 for the biggest quadrants at 30% apiece. Male to female ratio is 60%-40%. Diversity demos still where we saw them on Thursday night. Imax and PLFs are firing up 45% of the weekend with 15% from Imax alone. 3D reps 53% of the gross. Big grosses everywhere but best regions are South Central, Mountain and West regions. Regal Irvine Spectrum, which has the biggest Imax screen arguably in SoCal, is the leading locations with $94K.

RelishMix, which counts a social media reach for Fire and Ash of 834M across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X, says, “Convo runs positive for the threequel, sustained by the visceral excitement for its visual artistry and the expansion of the Avatar universe. The fervent fan base is not only anticipating the next chapter but is actively seeking out and appreciating the deep-cut lore James Cameron is layering in. The sentiment: ‘Cameron’s visionary status is frequently invoked, lending the project an aura of guaranteed quality. The orchestral music is lauded for immediately creating an epic, emotional atmosphere.’ The detailed speculation about the new Na’vi clans and the character Spider’s arc indicates a high level of audience investment. The franchise is leveraged as a high-water mark for cinematic VFX, serving as a direct challenge to the quality of other studios. The return of significant elements like Toruk Makto generates intense, almost spiritual enthusiasm within the core audience. A strong endorsement of the film’s creator noted, ‘James Cameron is really a visionary, the man is literally walking on Fire and Ash.‘ The technical awe is also used for comparative praise: ‘Marvel have no excuses anymore. These animations are surreal.’”

Social media universe for Fire and Ash is ahead of Avatar: The Way of Water‘s (810M) and other post-Covid sci-fi genre pics like Dune: Part Two (575.7M) and Godzilla x Kong (508.8M).

Angels Studios’ David has all the grace of God for No. 2 over those greedy, backstabbing rich characters in Lionsgate’s thriller The Housemaid, with the former set to do $25M after a $9.6M Friday/previews. At that level, that’s the best opening for Angel Studios ever surpassing the $19.6M 3-day of Sound of Freedom. That start also reps the King of all faith-based animated movies, besting Angel’s own King of Kings which opened to $19.4M. Housemaid is still looking good at an $8M Friday/previews on its way to $20M-$21M. David gets an A CinemaScore, while Housemaid gets a B (devotees of the book can always be harder on the film adaptation). The Rotten Tomatoes audience score is higher on the Amanda Seyfried-Sydney Sweeney movie at 91%. PostTrak is great on the Paul Feig-directed feature take of the Freida McFadden novel at a solid 84% positive and 63% definite recommend.

David gets 85% positive/71% definite recommend from general audiences with kids under 12 giving it a 93%/53% in the same respective categories. Female leaning at 53%. The 7-17 demo showed up at 18%, 35-44 is the biggest quad at 26%, followed by 25-34 at 20%. Diversity demos are 50% Caucasian, 23% Latino and Hispanic, 16% Black, 5% Asian and 6% Native American/other. This is playing in the Heartland with the South over-indexing. The AMC Dine-In Thoroughbred in Frank, TN is the pic’s best location with $35K so far.

Housemaid is pulling in all women at 70% with the 18-34 bunch 63% of the crowd — 25-34 the biggest quad at 41%. Diversity demos are 52% Caucasian, 27% Hispanic and Latino, 8% Black, 7% Asian and 6% Native American/other. Some PLF screens with an even play coast to coast, but great in East and the Midwest. Top grossing venue so far this weekend is Santikos Palladium in San Antonio, TX with $16,5K.

Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants is 4th with a $17M opening after a $6M Friday. The character who lives in the water under the sea gets an A- CinemaScore, the best he’s ever gotten for a big rendition of himself, ahead of 2004’s SpongeBob Squarepants (B+) and 2015’s Sponge Out of Water (B), the highest grossing movie in the franchise with $163M domestic, $325.1M global. On PostTrak, kids under 12 like it better than general audiences with 92% positive, 62% definite recommend vs. 70% positive/44% definite recommend.

Male-female is 53% to 47%, with 7-17 repping 28% of the crowd, 18-34 at 53% (25-34 the biggest at 30% turnout). Caucasian moviegoers at 43%, Hispanic and Latino at a big 29%, 12% Black, 10% Asian and 6% Native American/other. Some PLFs. Leading location is the Cinemark in Downey, CA with $13K.

Despite SpongeBob getting squished by David, it’s about the long game with this one.

No shocker here: A24’s Timothée Chalamet movie Marty Supreme is headed for a massive $809K opening in 9th place at six NYC and LA theaters which will deliver the best opening theater average of the year with $134,8K ahead of Focus Features’ opening theater average for Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme ($93,4K). 70MM prints playing at Regal Union Square ($95,4K), AMC Lincoln Square ($81K), AMC Burbank ($67K), Alamo Brooklyn ($58K) with great cash at AMC Grove ($43,6K) and Century City in LA ($39K). Yesterday was $384,4K for the Josh Safdie-directed movie which he co-wrote with longtime collaborator Ronald Bronstein.

Christmas is coming early to exhibition with this weekend—the 51st frame of the year—set to deliver $182.8M for all titles. That’s +29% over the same pre-Christmas period a year ago.

Saturday numbers:

FRIDAY PM UPDATE: With a great 72% definite recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak from last night’s audience, 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash is seeing $37 million today, including last night’s $12M.

Conservative estimates for a three-day total are between $84M-$88M, though others believe there’s a path to $90M at 3,800 theaters.

Women under 25, who only showed up at 17% yesterday, gave the pic its best definite recommend of 78%, while guys over 25 who repped 41% of the crowd gave it a 75% definite recommend. Men under 25 (22%) gave it 71%, while women over 25 at 20% gave it 63%. Overall, 18-34s yesterday was 64%, with diversity demos at 45% Caucasian, a strong 25% Latino and Hispanic, 16% Black, 12% Asian American and 6% Native American/other. Sixty-two percent of the crowd told PostTrak they’re big Avatar fans, while 29% are somewhat fans. Ninety-three percent of ticket buyers saw the previous Avatar movies. Of those who attended so far, 52% said they plan to see Fire and Ash in a theater again.

RELATED: ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Review: James Cameron’s Thrilling Third Trip To The Pandora Universe Is A War Epic For The Ages

Currently, there’s a fight for No. 2 this weekend between Angels Studios’ animated feature David and Lionsgate/Hidden Pictures’ R-rated Sydney Sweeney-Amanda Seyfried thriller The Housemaid with $20M-$24M. Both are seeing north of $8M today, with those figures including last night’s previews. David is booked at 3,500 sites, while Housemaid is at 3,015 movie houses. No RT audience score yet on Housemaid. David went into the weekend with $14M in presales from Angel Studios subscribers and fans.

Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants at 3,557 theaters is soaking up $5.6M today and $16M-$18M for the weekend. No RT audience score yet.

Fifth currently belongs to Disney’s fourth weekend of Zootopia 2 at 3,540 sites with $4.6M today and around $16M, off 38% on the high end, with a running total by Sunday of $284.3M. Lots of playtime left in the holiday season for the sequel despite the onslaught of more kid product in David and SpongeBob.

RELATED: ‘The Housemaid’ Review: Amanda Seyfried And Sydney Sweeney Go For It In Paul Feig’s Psychotic Screen Version Of Trashy Popular Novel

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Avatar: Fire and Ash came in where we saw it: at $12M in previews Thursday night. Audience score is very good with a 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Global so far is $72M — that includes $17M out of China on Day 1 and $43M abroad.

The Na’vi are still adored in the Middle Kingdom, and that opening day in China would rep the third-highest for a MPA title behind Zootopia 2 and Fast X. Early social scores are very good with Maoyan at 9.4 (Avatar was 9.4 and Avatar: The Way of Water 9.0) and TPP at 9.5 (Avatar 9.3, Way of Water 9.2). Know that with Avatar, wherever it lands domestic this weekend, it’s always about the overindexing abroad.

Lionsgate and Hidden Pictures’ The Housemaid came in with $2.2M. No RT audience score yet. Previews are ahead of Columbia Pictures’ Sydney Sweeney-Glen Powell pre-Christmas 2023 romantic comedy Anyone but You, which did $1.2M at 2,723 locations that began at 2 p.m. Thursday, posted a three-day of $6M and did a near 15x multiple for a final domestic of $88.3M.

Paramount’s The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants collected $1.4M at the domestic box office from paid previews across about 2,800 locations. That includes the Wednesday night 3D fan screenings. No RT audience score yet, but as we told you, the movie is getting the best reviews ever for the big-screen franchise.

Angel Studios isn’t reporting previews for its animated feature David, but industry estimates were at $1.8M. There is an 18-24 moviegoing audience out there today with 75% of colleges off today, that figure mushrooming to 91% on Monday. They have a 98% audience score.

Week’s top 5:

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PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE, Thursday PM: 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash lit the wick on its weekend with an estimated $12 million in previews from showtimes that began at 2PM today.

While that’s $5M lighter than the previews for 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which made $17M on its way to a $53.2M Friday and $134.1M 3-day, keep in mind that we’re closer to Christmas, hence audiences are bound to come out for this 3 hour and 17 minute James Cameron threequel once they’re past distractions. Also, when it comes to assessing the outcome of any Avatar movie, hold your breath until late January. Tracking had the Cameron-Rick Jaffa-Amanda Silver penned pic between $90M-$105M stateside for the weekend. Story by on the threequel comes from Cameron, Jaffa, Silver, Josh Friedman & Shane Salerno.

The $12M in previews figure is on par with such follow-ups as Warner Bros’ Dune: Part Two (3PM Thursday start) which post-Covid did $32.2M in its full Friday/previews on its way to an $82.5M 3-day (that movie sequel was 2 hours and 46 minutes). It’s also right on the money with Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thursday nights previews of Captain America: Brave New World (2PM start, first Friday/previews of $40.9M, 3-day of $88.8M). Keep in mind though that Marvel movies carry a lot of FOMO, hence the rush out, while Avatar movies for audiences are about finding the right showtimes and seats.

Rotten Tomatoes critics score for Fire and Ash stands at 69% fresh versus the 2009 original’s 81% certified fresh and Way of Water‘s 76% certified fresh.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate’s Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried R-rated thriller The Housemaid is lookin’ good with previews between $2.25M-$2.3M. Industry forecasts were at $20M+, while Lionsgate is content with a number in the teens; it’s all about the long game over the holiday season for the Paul Feig directed feature take of the Freida McFadden novel (the first in a trilogy). Reviews are great for this thriller at 77% certified fresh. Previews began at 2PM and they’re just under that of Hustlers (pre Covid with $2.5M, a $13M Friday, and $33.1M opening; as well as Don’t Worry Darling ($3.1M previews, $9.4M Friday, $19.3M opening) and right around where the PG-13 Where the Crawdads Sing were on their first Thursday night ($2.3M previews, $7.2M Friday, 3-day of $17.2M).

Thursday nights aren’t a time for families to head to previews. However, while 8% K-12 are off tomorrow, Friday, that figure jumps to 81% by Monday, per ComScore. Angel Studios’ animated feature David which began showtimes at 12noon, is around $1.8M. Many believe the faith-based family film will rank No. 2 this weekend with $20M-$25M. Presales yesterday totaled $14M. Critics are at 63% fresh, but audiences on RT are at 97%.

Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants is at $1.3M previews. That’s what DreamWorks Animation’s Boss Baby 2: Family Business did, resulting in a 3-day of $16M (that pic had a Peacock theatrical day-and-date back in July 2021). Opening outlook for the fourth SpongeBob movie is teens to $20M. Reviews at 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes are the highest ever in the history of the franchise on the big screen.

Respective studio sources didn’t respond for request for comment on tonight’s figures.