With a fresh year before us, ’tis the season to look ahead at what things we may look forward to over the next 12 months and which things may befall us in the world of music.
1. Possible consolidation within the streaming music business
We’ve all heard of the Big Four of streaming music: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and Amazon Music. You may have encountered Deezer, Tidal, Napster and Qobuz. We can throw iHeartRadio, Bandcamp, and SoundCloud into the mix. But what about 8Tracks, Boomplay, Jango, LiveOne, Joox, JioSaavn, Patari, KKBox and Hoopla? Those are streaming music services as well.
Some survive because of their special focus on specific areas of the world — China, South Asia and the Middle East, for example — but you have to wonder about the financial viability of the non-Big Four. Given the weirdness of music licensing and the razor-thin margins, how long can these other platforms hold out? Don’t be surprised if we hear of strategic partnerships, buyouts and shutdowns in 2025.
2. Netflix will launch a music streaming division
Just as Bob Dylan wrote “That he not busy being born is busy dying,” from 1965’s It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding), corporations that aren’t busy growing risk dying, too. Netflix is already monstrous, with nearly 300 million subscribers across 190 countries. How does the company keep growing to keep shareholders happy? It’s already cut back investment in original video programming, something that frees up cash for getting into the music streaming game.
Think about it. Netflix already has all the infrastructure in place. It has tons of tech talent. Pretty much every new smart TV has an option for Netflix. And when it comes to the whole rigamarole of licensing tracks, do you think labels/publishers would say no to Netflix? This possibility has to keep Spotify up at night.
3. AI will continue to shape music in unforeseen ways
This is a gimme, of course. Artificial intelligence is getting better and easier to use every week. Here are a couple of possible directions.
At some point, fiddling with AI and music is going to be so simple that all the kids are going to be doing it. I can see a trend where people create their own music using AI and then use these hyper-personalized bespoke compositions as online currency, sharing it via platforms like TikTok. This will create a whole new ecosystem without stars and without record labels.
Meanwhile, watch for record labels to get deeper in bed with AI companies, creating licensing deals for training models using material in their catalogues. We’ve already seen several attempts at creating virtual AI pop stars, although none have really broken through yet. It’s only a matter of time before one does.
And for a little extra revenue, artists will start licensing their voices, effectively cloning themselves, to other creators who will then come up with new AI-generated songs, resulting in the next level of collaborative songwriting.
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4. Vinyl sales will surpass those of CDs in Canada
CDs still rule when it comes to the physical format wars, but it’s a losing battle. With 2024 sales down 12 per cent from a year ago, there’s no sign that CDs will rebound in any meaningful way. At the same time, vinyl sales in 2024 were up nearly 27 per cent from 2023. At some point over the next 12 months, the trend lines will cross and new vinyl will outsell new CDs for the first time since the early ’90s. In fact, if you take into consideration the sales of used vinyl (indie record stores, record shows, online), vinyl already outsells and outgrosses CDs in this country.
5. Mainstream music will continue to devolve into a niche
When we had a limited supply of new music to choose from and it was all delivered by a couple of cultural gatekeepers (labels, radio, record stores, music magazines and video channels), it was easy for large swaths of the population to agree to support a small number of artists. That model has been broken by streaming and now everyone curates their own personal music experiences from the 120 million-ish songs available for streaming. That’s complicated by the tsunami of new tracks being added, which is estimated at around 110,000 per day. We can never, ever run out of music to listen to — and we’ll listen to what we want, not what the gatekeepers tell us to.
Music has no centre anymore. Technology has fractured the old ways of listening and it’s impossible for artists to scale in the way they used to. Yes, Taylor Swift is huge, but her music reaches a defined and finite audience. Just take a look at the Spotify Top 50 and tell me how many of those songs/artists you recognize. Heck, ask any non-Swiftie to name the titles of five songs and they’ll struggle. This isn’t a shot against Tay-Tay or anyone else; it’s simply the reality of the planet having so much music to choose from on an individual level.
Meanwhile, mainstream media will continue to be besotted with a tiny slice of pop acts, trying to convince the world that everyone is listening to this music. The truth is we’re off in our own little worlds. Smaller acts who tour relentlessly will be where the real action and innovation is.
6. Older music will continue to flourish because it’s cheaper
The major labels think they can do business in the digital world just like they used to when they were selling pieces of plastic. Because breaking new artists is harder, more unpredictable and more expensive than ever, it’s tempting for labels to keep mining their catalogues. Old songs have long been paid for and the costs for re-issues, special editions and box sets are almost nothing while offering high margins.
So what’s ripe for exploitation next? The early 2000s. Emo is already back (cf. My Chemical Romance’s 2025 stadium tour that is already sold out). We’ve seen signs of life with the original Britney Spears/Backstreet Boys/NSYNC crowd. Pop-punk? Could be time for its ride on the nostalgia train. And how about retro EDM?
I’ve seen all this called “Y2K Energy.” Demographics just might support this.
7. Small venues will continue to struggle
COVID-19 hit small music venues hard. Those that survived are having a hard time because a) so many young people never developed the habit of going out to see live music on a regular basis; b) younger generations don’t drink as much when they do go out, which is the source of revenue for small clubs; and c) if you’re splurging $1,000 on one or two big concerts a year, there’s nothing left to pay for a string of gigs that cost $25.
8. Festivals will continue to struggle
Unless your name is Glastonbury, you’re worried about the future. More than 50 festivals were cancelled in the U.K. last year while big events like Coachella and Bonarroo failed to sell out. Promoters face exponentially higher costs, a large part of which is insurance. Another is the recent trend of big festivals booking acts from a dozen or more different genres, hoping that a shotgun approach will attract more punters. This is anathema to an audience that customizes everything about their music consumption. You know what will do well? Smaller, more focused festivals.
9. People will continue to rediscover proper high-fidelity music
There were a couple of generations where the crappy audio quality of MP3s was good enough. That’s slowly changing as streamers like Apple Music up their game to high-resolution digital files. (Compare streams of the same song on Spotify and Apple Music. It’s no contest.) More people are buying standalone high-end stereo systems on which to play their vinyl and CDs. And if the iPhone ever starts supporting FLAC files, look out. Music will finally sound as good as it did in 1984.
10. Heritage acts will continue to die
Another gimme. Actuarial tables say many of the artists we’ve known our whole lives are coming to the end. How are we going to cope with the knowledge that these people who have supplied music to us our entire lives (and beyond!) are no longer alive? If you want to experience them live, don’t wait. Do it now.