EXCLUSIVE: Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Deadpool & Wolverine hit six week tracking this morning and, man, does it look amazing. The Quorum, which actually monitors pics six weeks ahead, is reporting a projection of $200M-$239M, which the service actually believes is conservative.
Let’s give this an asterisk: There has never been an R-rated movie before that has opened to $200M, and by the Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman threequel busting that sphere, it will be an anomaly. The current record for an R-rated opening at the domestic box office is owned by the original Deadpool which posted $132.4M back in February 2016. Even if Deadpool & Wolverine comes in at $150M (keep in mind, it’s not clear if the younger Disney Marvel Studios parents/fans realize this is R-rated), it will still rep the biggest opening for both Reynolds (beating Deadpool) and Jackman (besting X-Men: The Last Stand‘s $103M). At that level, it will also be the highest opening of the summer, besting even this weekend’s anticipated $100M start for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2.
Among those willing to pay to see the movie in a theater, the Shawn Levy-directed threequel blows away all other titles this summer with a high score. In fact, it’s the highest of any movie this summer in any metric across unaided and total awareness and interest. The movie also has the highest PLF score at 28% with Quorom, meaning of all the movies this summer, audiences definitely want to see this in a premium format. The tracking numbers for men we are told are actually higher than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home six weeks from release; that movie ranks as the second best domestic opening of all-time at $260.1M. Note the projections for Deadpool & Wolverine could actually climb.
Deadpool & Wolverine happens on July 26.