Donald Trump’s path to the GOP nomination, many believe, seems inevitable. But I see ghosts. Ghost voters, that is. Voters who appear to be for Trump but will actually disappear by the time Iowa—the first Republican caucus state—rolls around.
How so? Special counsel Jack Smith dropped his mighty prosecutorial hammer last week, which at the very least further complicates an already fraught legal battleground for Trump. The question is: How, despite all the sound and fury, will this change the political calculus for the former guy?
The conventional wisdom is: not much. If past is prologue, Trump’s support will only strengthen within his base in the face of further indictments. But even if that happens, I’m not feeling it for the long term. Because it can’t be helpful to his general election prospects. Because crucial swing and independent voters—the portion of the electorate that will turn the tide in this race—are more likely to view Trump’s actions as criminal and therefore, um, not presidential.
I think there’s another possibility as well. Whether it’s a result of this latest indictment, a presumed impending indictment in Georgia, and/or any other additional superseding indictments, at a certain point even ardent Trumpers with an ounce of common sense are going to realize that he’s too beat up to win a national contest—even against a weakened Joe Biden.
While recent polling before the latest indictment showed an even race, when all the additional legal baggage is stacked up, I think there’s a good chance that the polls between now and Iowa—surveying “probable voters in November 2024”—are going to look worse and worse for Trump. And his support will begin to wane, then buckle.
In fact, it already is. The latest Iowa polling, released last Friday, shows Trump’s foundation softening, with 47% of his otherwise reliable voters saying they would consider someone else. And with all the additional bad legal news that is going to roll out over the next six months, quite possibly including the day-to-day drumbeat of the trials themselves, does anyone really expect his numbers to improve?
An analogy is in order. Think of MAGA-land as Green Bay in football. And Brett Favre is Donald Trump. And he has what appears to be a torn ACL. But he insists on playing. And the Packers faithful don’t want to say out loud what they really believe: that maybe his playing days are behind him, and it’s time to put in Matt Hasselbeck.
From what I’m divining in the heartland these days, that’s what a lot of previously committed Trump voters are starting to think. Because a healthy Matt Hasselbeck could definitely beat the over-the-hill guy on the other side, George Blanda.
In 2016, we experienced the phenomenon of the silent Trump voter, those who were secretly for Trump but feared being ostracized if they said so publicly. This cycle, we may have precisely the opposite: Republican voters who are afraid not to say they are for Trump publicly, and yet quietly acknowledge he’d be likely to lose the general election. These are the Trump ghost voters. They appear to be there…but are just as likely to disappear into the electoral mists.
Moreover, Trump’s campaign coffers may possess that phantom aspect as well. Yes, he is pulling in serious dollars. But he may well be draining some of those reserves to help in his multifront legal defense. And once the primary season gets into full swing, he may lack the financial firepower to compete in a serious way by mustering the staffing, ads, rallies, retail campaigning, and online blasts necessary to provide stability and lasso on-the-fence voters.
Iowa will be everything. If Trump wins, it will be over. If he loses, it’s a whole new ball game. Iowa, famously, can change dramatically within weeks or even days of the election. And folks, there are still five months until Iowa!