We knew Warner Bros’ Barbie and Universal’s Oppenheimer were going to be big — but not this big.
Paramount’s Tom Cruise sequel Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One learned that the hard way (65% Weekend 2 decline with $19.3M) by going one weekend before the dual tidal wave, trying to avoid the wake of what we all thought was going to be the summer’s biggest hit in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny over the July 4th weekend.
These tickets for Barbie and Oppenheimer won’t punch themselves, so expect a second weekend of $72M (-55%) for the Mattel doll and $35M for Oppenheimer, which will stay strong with an expected 56% ease with locks on 400 Imax auditoriums. Combined, the two movies will count a weekend around $107M.
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Even though Barbie loses her PLF screens to Disney’s Haunted Mansion, which count 200 including Dolby Vision, don’t expect America’s blonde to bust a heel. After Barbie delivered a record Monday for Warner Bros of $26.1M, odds are in her favor to steal Haunted Mansion’s family audience.
Exhibition and presales indicate a start of $30M+ for the Justin Simien-directed feature take of the Disney theme park ride, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the movie comes in between $20M-$25M. That’s close to where the Eddie Murphy 2003 version debuted to, $24.2M, before finaling at $75.8M domestic, with that PG comedy receiving a B CinemaScore. The reboot is PG-13 and stars Rosario Dawson, LaKeith Stanfield, Tiffany Haddish, Owen Wilson, Jamie Lee Curtis, Danny De Vito and Jared Leto. The pic is tracking with families, and Black and Hispanic/Latin audiences. Disney family films tend to skew toward girls, making the movie a complement to Paramount/Point Grey’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem on Wednesday, August 2, which looks to seize all boys with a $40M Wednesday through Sunday start.
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Haunted Mansion will have Dolby Early Access Screenings on Wednesday at 7 p.m. and national previews starting at 3 p.m. Thursday. The pic was able to junket before the start of the SAG-AFTRA strike, but its Disneyland world premiere was impacted by the industry’s thespian walkout, taking place on Day 2 of the strike. Hence, none of the cast showed up on the red carpet.
Look out for Barbie and Oppenheimer as they’ll have a great Tuesday. It’s discount bargain night for many theaters.