Legacy income is set to remain stable at about £3.9bn a year despite ongoing economic challenges, new figures show.
Data from the charity legacy consortium Legacy Foresight shows that legacy giving in the UK reached £3.85bn in 2022 and is expected to remain stable over the next few years.
The quarterly analysis, called Legacy Market Outlook 2023-2027, shows the UK is likely to register 145,000 bequests a year over the next five years.
According to the analysis, the UK recorded 656,000 deaths in the 12 months to the end of December, 1.2 per cent higher than previously predicted by the Office for National Statistics.
The figure is expected to continue rising, the study said, with annual rates likely to be similar to the levels seen during the pandemic by 2027.
This will mean that, despite the expected reduction in the average value of residual gifts over the next couple of years, the annual income from gifts in wills remains on a long-term upward trend over the next five years,
The figures are based on data from the charity sector’s Legacy Monitor Consortium, Legacy Foresight’s benchmarking service, which includes more than 80 British not-for-profit organisations, accounting for about 50 per cent of the UK charity legacy market.
The study also includes current big-picture economic and social trends.
Jon Franklin, economist at Legacy Foresight, said: “Despite the economic headwinds, it is unlikely that legacy income will fall dramatically in coming years.
“The long-term upward trend in the number of deaths will lead to increases in the number of gifts, which will largely offset the impact of anticipated falls in house prices.”
Ashley Rowthorn, chief executive at Legacy Futures Group, said: “While the forecast remains promising, this is not a time for complacency.
“The charity legacy market is becoming increasingly competitive with more organisations entering this space and, despite the volume of legacies increasing, the average gift value is likely to decrease, at least in the short term.
“Charities will need to understand market conditions, how these are affecting their supporters and be relevant in their fundraising to secure legacy income for the future.”