The New York Times’s recent report on former White House adviser John Bolton’s forthcoming book, which revealed that President Donald Trump unequivocally conditioned foreign aid to Ukraine on them calling investigations into his political rivals, has thrown a wrench into the president’s Senate trial—but Republicans are already starting to regroup. The bombshell revelations, which reportedly blindsided the Senate GOP, made it appear more likely than ever on Monday that enough Republicans could defect and vote with Democrats to call trial witnesses, giving Bolton the chance to share his knowledge of the president’s Ukraine dealings under oath. As the dust has settled, however, the question of calling witnesses is once again up in the air—but the president can’t rest easy just yet.
The Wall Street Journal and other outlets report that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Republican senators Tuesday that he doesn’t yet have the necessary votes to block witnesses from being called. The revelation came after leadership reportedly privately tallied senators on whether they were a “yes,” “no,” or “maybe” on the witness vote, which is expected to take place Friday. “It was a serious family discussion,” Senator Kevin Cramer told reporters about Tuesday’s closed-door meeting. “Some people are sincerely exploring all the avenues.” Four GOP senators would have to side with Democrats on the vote in order for it to pass, and the three most likely defectors—Sens. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitt Romney—have all signaled in the wake of the Bolton report that they’d like to hear more from the one-time Trump adviser. “Mr. Bolton probably has some things that would be helpful for us and we’ll figure out how we might be able to learn that,” Murkowski said, while Romney has reportedly started lobbying his colleagues to support witnesses. “The article in the New York Times I think made it pretty clear that [Bolton] has some information that may be relevant,” the Utah senator said Monday night. “And I’d like to hear relevant information before I made a final decision.”
Yet McConnell has also reportedly made it clear that Republicans don’t yet have the votes to block witnesses because several senators are still undecided, rather than because enough senators have committed to supporting witnesses. And with no GOP senator yet stepping up to provide the crucial fourth swing vote, Republicans appear to believe that even if the votes aren’t there just yet, they’ll be able to block witnesses in the end. Per Politico, GOP senators and aides have said that a “feeling of calm had been restored” to the GOP caucus Tuesday after Monday’s aftershocks from the Bolton report, and Republicans “feel increasingly confident about prevailing” in Friday’s witness vote. “I feel good,” one attendee of Tuesday’s Senate GOP meeting, who opposes new witnesses, told Politico.
The GOP senators who remain undecided are facing a fierce lobbying effort from Senate leadership and the White House alike, who are warning senators that agreeing to call witnesses could interminably drag out the impeachment trial. Voting for Bolton to testify would likely lead to both sides calling an endless parade of other witnesses, the GOP argument goes—and if Trump decides to invoke executive privilege, and then take the ensuing dispute over invoking executive privilege to court, the resulting legal battle could draw out impeachment for months on end. “There are the legal implications for members to consider including questions of executive privilege,” a senior GOP aide told Politico. “I don’t know how much patience there is amongst the senators to be waiting around.” At the very least, a vote in favor of Bolton’s testimony will likely lead to the GOP getting its way and calling witnesses like Hunter Biden and the anonymous whistleblower to the stand, Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested Tuesday. “I’ll make a prediction: There will be 51 Republican votes to call Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, the whistleblower and the DNC staffer at a minimum,” Graham told reporters.